Role of numeracy and cognitive reflection in Bayesian inference with natural frequencies

Sirota, Miroslav and Juanchich, Marie (2011) Role of numeracy and cognitive reflection in Bayesian inference with natural frequencies. Studia Psychologica, 53(2), pp. 151-161. ISSN (print) 0039-3320

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Abstract

Facilitative effect of natural frequencies in Bayesian reasoning task is a robust phenomenon. However, it does not benefit to everyone and the reasons why remain open. This paper examines to what extent numeracy and cognitive reflection can account for individual differences in Bayesian task performance. Our results showed that participants with good numerical ability and cognitive reflection performed better than participant with lower numerical ability and cognitive reflection, respectively. Furthermore, mediation analysis showed that numeracy does not mediate the effect of cognitive reflection on Bayesian performance. The role of numeracy in performance was clarified and cognitive reflection was identified as a new determinant of Bayesian performance. Numeracy and cognitive reflection account for the individual differences of the facilitative effect of the natural frequencies in the process of belief revision. These findings have implications for debate on nature of the facilitation effect and for improving risk communication involving the informed consent.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This work was supported by VEGA [grant number 2/0204/09].
Uncontrolled Keywords: numeracy, cognitive reflection, Bayesian inference, natural frequencies, mediation analysis
Research Area: Psychology
Business and management studies
Faculty, School or Research Centre: Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > School of Social Science (until November 2012)
Faculty of Business and Law
Faculty of Business and Law > Centre for Research in Employment, Skills and Society (CRESS)
Faculty of Business and Law > Kingston Business School (Leadership, HRM and Organisation) (until July 2013)
Depositing User: Marie Juanchich
Date Deposited: 20 Jun 2011 12:40
Last Modified: 14 Feb 2013 14:58
URI: http://eprints.kingston.ac.uk/id/eprint/17154

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