Sirota, Miroslav and Juanchich, Marie (2011) Role of numeracy and cognitive reflection in Bayesian reasoning with natural frequencies. Studia Psychologica, 53(2), pp. 151-161. ISSN (print) 0039-3320

Abstract

Facilitative effect of natural frequencies in Bayesian reasoning task is a robust phenomenon. However, it does not benefit to everyone and the reasons why remain open. This paper examines to what extent numeracy and cognitive reflection can account for individual differences in Bayesian task performance. Our results showed that participants with good numerical ability and cognitive reflection performed better than participant with lower numerical ability and cognitive reflection, respectively. Furthermore, mediation analysis showed that numeracy does not mediate the effect of cognitive reflection on Bayesian performance. The role of numeracy in performance was clarified and cognitive reflection was identified as a new determinant of Bayesian performance. Numeracy and cognitive reflection account for the individual differences of the facilitative effect of the natural frequencies in the process of belief revision. These findings have implications for debate on nature of the facilitation effect and for improving risk communication involving the informed consent.

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