Marcellusi, Andrea, Fabiano, Gianluca, Sciattella, Paolo, Andreoni, Massimo and Mennini, Francesco Saverio (2022) The impact of COVID-19 vaccination on the Italian healthcare system : a scenario analysis. Clinical Drug Investigation, 42(3), pp. 237-242. ISSN (print) 1173-2563
Abstract
During 2020, the only instruments for fighting against the pandemic peaks were lockdowns, physical distancing, closure of schools and non-essential businesses, and travel restrictions. The new vaccination strategy adopted in Italy in 2021 represented a new perspective for policymakers. The aim of this study was to estimate the effects of the national immunisation strategy for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy on the national healthcare system. An epidemiological scenario analysis was developed in order to simulate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Italian national healthcare system in 2021. Hospitalisations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and death rates were modelled based on 2020 data. Costs were estimated using hospital admissions from the Policlinico of Tor Vergata Hospital in Rome. Two scenarios were tested, one with vaccination and the second without. This is the first study highlighting the effect of vaccines on the Italian healthcare system in terms of avoided cases, hospitalisations and costs. Our results have the potential to inform policymakers and the general population on the benefits of vaccinations.
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