Pop-Silaghi, Monica Ioana (2006) Cointegration and causality between trade and growth: evidence from Romania, the CEE countries and EU. (Discussion Paper) Kingston upon Thames, U.K. : Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Kingston University. 16 p. (Economics Discussion Paper)Full text not available from this archive.
A number of time-series studies exist for individual countries in the area of exports led growth but little is known about this area for Romania and some other Central Eastern European countries [CEEC]. Using quarterly data, we employ cointegration and Granger-causality tests on stochastic systems comprising exports, imports and non-exportable GDP. The findings show that only growth-led exports [GLE] hypothesis is vindicated in the case of Romania. We also test the relation between imports and growth, but failed to find any positive causality results. The inclusion of imports as a third variable within a Johansen's multivariate framework does not change the results. For comparison, same tests were applied to Bulgaria, the 10 countries recently joined the EU, the EU 15 and the EU 25. Bi-directional causality has been found for exports and non-exportable GDP only in the case of Slovenia, Czech Republic, Estonia and for the whole EU 15, implying a virtuous cycle of growth and exports.
|Item Type:||Monograph (Discussion Paper)|
|Additional Information:||Economics discussion paper, 2006/8|
|Physical Location:||This book is held in stock at Kingston University Library.|
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||CEEC, time series|
|Research Area:||Economics and econometrics|
|Faculty, School or Research Centre:||Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > School of Economics (until November 2012)|
|Depositing User:||Susan Miles|
|Date Deposited:||03 Jul 2007|
|Last Modified:||17 Nov 2008 17:22|
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