Cointegration and causality between trade and growth: evidence from Romania, the CEE countries and EU

Pop-Silaghi, Monica Ioana (2006) Cointegration and causality between trade and growth: evidence from Romania, the CEE countries and EU. (Discussion Paper) Kingston upon Thames, U.K. : Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Kingston University. 16 p. (Economics Discussion Paper)

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Abstract

A number of time-series studies exist for individual countries in the area of exports led growth but little is known about this area for Romania and some other Central Eastern European countries [CEEC]. Using quarterly data, we employ cointegration and Granger-causality tests on stochastic systems comprising exports, imports and non-exportable GDP. The findings show that only growth-led exports [GLE] hypothesis is vindicated in the case of Romania. We also test the relation between imports and growth, but failed to find any positive causality results. The inclusion of imports as a third variable within a Johansen's multivariate framework does not change the results. For comparison, same tests were applied to Bulgaria, the 10 countries recently joined the EU, the EU 15 and the EU 25. Bi-directional causality has been found for exports and non-exportable GDP only in the case of Slovenia, Czech Republic, Estonia and for the whole EU 15, implying a virtuous cycle of growth and exports.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Additional Information: Economics discussion paper, 2006/8
Physical Location: This book is held in stock at Kingston University Library.
Uncontrolled Keywords: CEEC, time series
Research Area: Economics and econometrics
Faculty, School or Research Centre: Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > School of Economics (until November 2012)
Depositing User: Susan Miles
Date Deposited: 03 Jul 2007
Last Modified: 17 Nov 2008 17:22
URI: http://eprints.kingston.ac.uk/id/eprint/1632

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