Variants of verbal uncertainty

Juanchich, Marie, Teigen, Karl Halvor and Gourdon, Amélie (2010) Variants of verbal uncertainty. In: Society for Judgment and Decision Making (SJDM) 31st Annual Conference; 20-22 Nov 2010, Saint Louis, Missouri, U.S..

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We suggest that speakers can communicate the source of their uncertainty by framing their prediction with either a personal mode �I am uncertain that the team will win� or with an impersonal mode �It is uncertain that the team will win�. We studied the effect of such mode on how recipients judge the prediction. We found that participants judged impersonal prediction more informative, and more based on statistical information than personal prediction. In addition participants were more willing to bet according to impersonal prediction. Findings support the existence of variants of uncertainty and that uncertain claims convey more than a probability.

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